Yellow bubble percentage breakdown - entire vintage line *LOOK*

[Miss_the_80s]

I don't know if this information will be useful to anyone, but I found it interesting. I was curious about the approximate percentage of each series of MOC's that had yellow bubbles. While this certainly isn't exact, I think it gives a pretty good snapshot of the overall line.

These numbers were pulled from AFA's population report a few months ago. The report is broken down to how many were graded with a "Y" designation at the time of grade. This of course only takes into account MOC's that were sent to AFA - but there is a total of over 45,000 accounted for here, so the sample size is decent. It also doesn't take into account how many have turned yellow since they were graded.

It's interesting to see that only 1.7% of 12 backs are yellow, while 75.2% of the POTF series was. In fact, 33.7% of all graded MOC's have a "Y" designation.

 

[Joe_O]

That's a most interesting breakdown!

 

[plasticlab]

Man, I hate yellow bubbles...

 

[Bonsai_Tree_Ent]

This seems counter intuitive. The older bubbles have stayed clear, while the later bubbles have turned yellow.

 

[Miss_the_80s]

I also find it interesting that the 45 and 47 backs have an unusually high yellow ratio. Lousy plastic batches, perhaps?

 

[BillCable]

This seems counter intuitive. The older bubbles have stayed clear, while the later bubbles have turned yellow.

Different plastics were used.

The sample isn't bad, but it probably understates the frequency of yellow bubbles. Many collectors won't send yellow bubble figures to be graded. As such, the population is already presorted.

 

[Yehuda_K]

Thanks for putting that together. Yellow bubbles are probably much more common since many yellow bubbled carded figures are not sent in for grading. The ratios between different card backs may be the more accurate information then overall incidence of bubble yellowing for each individual card back type

 

[Miss_the_80s]

Different plastics were used.

The sample isn't bad, but it probably understates the frequency of yellow bubbles. Many collectors won't send yellow bubble figures to be graded. As such, the population is already presorted.

That's an excellent point. Reality is likely higher than these numbers.

 

[Joe_O]

Different plastics were used.

The sample isn't bad, but it probably understates the frequency of yellow bubbles. Many collectors won't send yellow bubble figures to be graded. As such, the population is already presorted.

It still gives a pretty good snapshot of the yellow bubble situation on all series of MOC though, although it's probably old news to most (Yellow ROTJ/POTF compared to SW/ESB has been known for ages) it's cool to use the AFA pop report for something half useful

I agree with you Bill that many submitting MOC won't send in yellowed bubbles to grade but ultimately it still shows that there are more clear SW & ESB MOCS out there to choose from and submit for grading than there are clear ROTJ & POTF.

 

[Joe_O]

I remember Jay posting a similar thing based on his own research a few years back, thought it would compliment the discussion a bit and besides he never posts any more so he will probably miss this thread!

I posted this on a similar thread that asked why Palitoy ROTJ tend to have clear bubbles whilst ROTJ Kenner are mostly yellow on another vintage forum so this may help a bit here

SW Kenner 99% Clear 1% Yellowed
SW Palitoy 99% Clear 1% Yellowed

ESB Kenner 70% Clear 30% Yellowed
ESB Palitoy 85% Clear 15% Yellowed

ROTJ Kenner 10% Clear 90% Yellowed
ROTJ Palioty 70% Clear 30% Yellow

Kenner POTF 1% Clear 99% Yellowed
Palitoy Tri Logo 99% Clear 1% Yellowed

There was definitely a change in the plastics that started on the ESB wave.

By the time ROTJ MOC's were released by kenner in the US this new plastic (that we now know is prone to yellowing) was mainly used.

As Craig highlighted Palitoy used a wide mixture of bubbles for the ROTJ line. The actual European produced bubbles made at Palitoy and later the Tri Logo bubbles must have used the earlier type of plastic that stays clear (at least until the present day what the future holds is anyones guess)

Ive spent a lot of years studying MOC and hunting clear bubble examples and i stand by the percentages listed above.

I am sure either Jay or someone else even went back and looked at the worlds Oil industry throughout the late 70's and early 80's as well in another thread to kinda see where the oil used for plastic was coming from and where certain countries got their supplies from.

Interesting stuff for us geeks!

 

[Bonsai_Tree_Ent]

So Palitoy bubbles stay clearer?

I'll claim that as a victory for solid British engineering - god save the Queen!

 

[phidias_barrios]

Personally, I think more of it (yellowing) has to do with the transition from T-stem bubbles to the rectangular bubbles that are sealed all the way around. As most of us know, the T-stems have that little slit at the bottom so air can circulate in and out. When the figure off gasses, it'll escape. Similar to those MIM cards with the hole punched in the back, which coincidentally you almost never see with a yellow bubble.

Then again, that doesn't explain why trilogo bubbles haven't yellowed which are completely sealed like Jedi cards. So who knows.....

 

[Yehuda_K]

Personally, I think more of it (yellowing) has to do with the transition from T-stem bubbles to the rectangular bubbles that are sealed all the way around. As most of us know, the T-stems have that little slit at the bottom so air can circulate in and out. When the figure off gasses, it'll escape. Similar to those MIM cards with the hole punched in the back, which coincidentally you almost never see with a yellow bubble.

Then again, that doesn't explain why trilogo bubbles haven't yellowed which are completely sealed like Jedi cards. So who knows.....

Also storage conditions play a factor
its fair to say its multifactorial.
plastic batches , bubble shape with venting of gasses and storage factors

 

[Bill_McBride]

I don't know if this information will be useful to anyone, but I found it interesting. I was curious about the approximate percentage of each series of MOC's that had yellow bubbles. While this certainly isn't exact, I think it gives a pretty good snapshot of the overall line.

I think it's very helpful, it's brilliant !! How long have people searched for a clear bubble POTF fig in vain ? Well, this is
a really good set of data points which explain all those frustrating searches.
Great job '80s !!!

Bill

 

[Dave_T]

It would be interesting to see yellowing data for ROTJ 48 backs (I'd suspect it would be most similar to ESB 48 backs than to any of the other ROTJ cards ). I haven't crunched any numbers or done any serious analysis, but the clearest of the ROTJ bubbles seem to be 48 backs, in my opinion.

 

[Miss_the_80s]

It would be interesting to see yellowing data for ROTJ 48 backs (I'd suspect it would be most similar to ESB 48 backs than to any of the other ROTJ cards ). I haven't crunched any numbers or done any serious analysis, but the clearest of the ROTJ bubbles seem to be 48 backs, in my opinion.

Wow, I missed that one. I'm going to add it to the spreadsheet now, and the results are surprising.

 

[Adam_L]

It's interesting to see that only 1.7% of 12 backs are yellow, while 74.1% of the POTF series was. In fact, 33.8% of all graded MOC's have a "Y" designation.

Thats a startling revalation, a third of all carded submitted to AFA are yellowed (probably closer to 40% now). This is perfect information for collectors like Kyle Babbit who seem to inquire and show concern about yellowed bubbles. Read it and weep! I would have thought 41-backs as a % submitted would have seen a higher % yellowed.

 

[Miss_the_80s]

It would be interesting to see yellowing data for ROTJ 48 backs (I'd suspect it would be most similar to ESB 48 backs than to any of the other ROTJ cards ). I haven't crunched any numbers or done any serious analysis, but the clearest of the ROTJ bubbles seem to be 48 backs, in my opinion.

I added ROTJ 48 Backs - only 14.4%! Must have still been using the ESB bubble formula.

 

[calevans83]

I find it interesting that the 48 backs don't have a horrible percentage themselves but are bookended by two groups that are quite yellow.

Cal

I remember Jay posting a similar thing based on his own research a few years back, thought it would compliment the discussion a bit and besides he never posts any more so he will probably miss this thread!



I am sure either Jay or someone else even went back and looked at the worlds Oil industry throughout the late 70's and early 80's as well in another thread to kinda see where the oil used for plastic was coming from and where certain countries got their supplies from.

Interesting stuff for us geeks!

 

[SF1138]

Many if not most 48 backs seem to have the footed bubble, so I personally think the air gap helps...

 

[Miss_the_80s]

For the hell of it I added Palitoy to the spreadsheet.

 

[Miss_the_80s]

Gentleman, my boredom is your gain. Here's a individual breakdown of the POTF line, in order of hardest to find clear. Two figures have never been graded with a clear bubble - not one. What's odd is the bottom of the list, the Lumat and AT-ST driver are mostly clear. How does that make sense?

 

[ChrisGeorgoulias]

Bubbles are made from vac-formed plastic sheet material. As such, there must have been many suppliers who had some stock that would be adequate for making bubbles. And, as basically all plastics go, the chemical compositions vary. Also keep in mind that these figures span years and continents so there was certainly a difference in what was used over time. Chemicals break down eventually.

What's shocking to me isn't yellow bubbles, it's that 40k vintage figures have been graded! There has to be 50x as many out there that haven't been graded, but still people pay crazy money for them.

Rare indeed.

-chris

 

[Miss_the_80s]

Bubbles are made from vac-formed plastic sheet material. As such, there must have been many suppliers who had some stock that would be adequate for making bubbles. And, as basically all plastics go, the chemical compositions vary. Also keep in mind that these figures span years and continents so there was certainly a difference in what was used over time. Chemicals break down eventually.

What's shocking to me isn't yellow bubbles, it's that 40k vintage figures have been graded! There has to be 50x as many out there that haven't been graded, but still people pay crazy money for them.

Rare indeed.

-chris

My original spreadsheet was probably from 3 or 4 months ago, and I just updated it through today. The count is now over 45,000, so AFA has graded over 5,000 Kenner MOC's in just the last 4 months or so. Another possible explanation is that they were behind in updating their population report and did it all at once recently.

On the flip side, only 2,836 Palitoys since the beginning. It's surprising that they are that much more scarce.

 

[Adam_L]

What's shocking to me isn't yellow bubbles, it's that 40k vintage figures have been graded! There has to be 50x as many out there that haven't been graded, but still people pay crazy money for them.

After reading these sentences, I'm deriving all numbers out of what your saying. Even the rate at which chemicals break down can be mathematicly deduced. People just seem to go gooo-gooo, gaaa-gaaaa over numbers. To pay $1000 for an AFA85, or to pay $600 for an AFA80 , that is the question! Like you said before Chris, people are collecting numbers when they collect/buy AFA. Its that whole "collect invest" mentality. I collect numbers (not AFA numbers, but another kind of vintage related numbers), but I prefer to crunch numbers. Moral of the story: there is power in numbers!

 

[Dave_Macleod]

Gentleman, my boredom is your gain. Here's a individual breakdown of the POTF line, in order of hardest to find clear. Two figures have never been graded with a clear bubble - not one. What's odd is the bottom of the list, the Lumat and AT-ST driver are mostly clear. How does that make sense?

^^^What happened to Yak Face??

 

[Miss_the_80s]

What happened to Yak Face??

Just for you:

 

[Fratboy24]

Wow Aaron, this is a great bit of information.

Your spot on with the ratio of ROTJ 48 backs that are clear in comparison to the rest of the line. The 48 Backs were essentially the same as the ESBs with a different cardback. I never realized that POTF was only 1%, I always knew it was bad but never that bad.




Chris G, totally like your line of thinking with the ratio of figures that might still be out there. But I think that 50x is a bit high, when you go to eBay and other markets these days the ratios seem to be closer to 75%/25% Ungraded/Graded. In fact we did a local show last fall and it was nearly 50/50. I know it's hard to phatham but it seems like a lot more people jumped on or off the AFA bandwagon then you or I may have thought.

 

[Dave_T]

Chris G, totally like your line of thinking with the ratio of figures that might still be out there. But I think that 50x is a bit high, when you go to eBay and other markets these days the ratios seem to be closer to 75%/25% Ungraded/Graded. In fact we did a local show last fall and it was nearly 50/50.

But you're limiting your estimations to what you've observed in markets. Considering what's actually "out there" (i.e. everywhere, not necessarily what's on ebay and at shows), those estimates wouldn't hold up.

 

[Miss_the_80s]

Anybody aware of the existence of a POTF Gam Guard or Nikto with a clear bubble?

 

[michael_mensinger]

Miss_the_80's thanks so much for extracting all of the info from the raw AFA data! Very informative to say the least!!!

Adam wrote:

Like you said before Chris, people are collecting numbers when they collect/buy AFA. Its that whole "collect invest" mentality.

I don't think it's necessarily fair to paint everyone that collects graded material with such a single broad stroke like that, Adam. Collectors who are condition sensitive have coveted higher grade carded figures, and subsequently valued them higher, well before the advent of AFA. At the basic level, a collector purchasing a C-9+ raw carded figure over a C-7 carded figure ertainly isn't "collecting numbers", so its really no different when a collector purchases the AFA equivalent of a C-9+ over the AFA equivalent of a C-7. I'm not so naive as to think collecting numbers never happens in any instance, but I do think there are plenty instances where AFA collectors genuinely preferring higher condition than lower condition. I don't want to turn this into a pro vs. anti AFA debate, but felt it important to make this point in response to the above quote.

- Mike

 

[tapuvae]

So 45k times about 20 a pop is about 1 million in sales for vintage carded alone. Nice.

I agree that this is useful information and thank the poster for compiling it. There is some bias built into it but 45k is no small sample and we MAY be giving submitters too much credit. People submit all sorts of stuff and the decision to submit may not be so biased AGAINST yellow bubbles as we might think. I mean a high grade clear carded fig in the hands of a collector will go to AFA regardless. A rare fig in any sort of decent shape will go to AFA regardless. VERY yellow bubbles, ashtray yellow, may not go to AFA under most circumstances (but will likely end up there as a loose figure). But decent grade SYB bubbles will probably go to AFA regardless. If we have underreporting bias I would guess it is in the yellow bubble AFA 70-80 range.

I wonder if someone could pull data on the frequency of yellow bubble grades by date of grade and plot this against the U grade submission. If we see a drastic change in the slop of the yellow grade line coincident with the advent of the U grade then this may suggest causality (may). However, one has to factor the rising popularity of U grading over time.

 

[skye]

This thread is outstanding. Thanks for the work on this. I would love to see more threads that study the data AFA provides.

 

[Bonsai_Tree_Ent]

I mean a high grade clear carded fig in the hands of a collector will go to AFA regardless. A rare fig in any sort of decent shape will go to AFA regardless.

tapuvae, as a UK scummer i'm not sure I agree with this. I think perhaps you're thinking a little USA-centric and not so much internationally, as the international shipping costs for grading makes it a rather less attractive option. I personally sell figures for profit and have looked at whether or not I ought to send my mint or near mint ones to AFA first before selling them on Ebay in order to max those profits and I remain to be persuaded whether the cost and hassle is worth it.

You also have to remember that there remains a good section of the collector market that simply doesn't want graded. So by grading the item you are actually narrowing your potential buyers. So I think your assumption that all the quality pieces will go through AFA regardless is not true - at least from an international perspective (and probably not even from a USA domestic perspective, although I can't profess to know too much about this).

 

[Miss_the_80s]

Here's a 12 Back breakdown - that 1.7% is not spread evenly among the 12. Luke Skywalker remains the most yellowed, although you have to be unlucky to get a yellow bubble among any of them. These numbers include all variations of each figure.

 

[Soren]

This thread is outstanding. Thanks for the work on this. I would love to see more threads that study the data AFA provides.

Ditto to that . LOVE stuff like this . Thanks 80's

 

[VlixHunter]

This is a great thread!!

I would be interested in seeing the percentage of ROTJ 79 backs with yellow bubbles.
As someone who concentrates on 79 backs, I have noticed an unusually high concentration of yellow bubbles with these, especially within the last 5 years.
Very rare these days to find a 79 back that has not begun to yellow. This would also follow the trend of the latter releases seeing this yellowing effect.
Cheap plastic is the culprit in my opinion.

 

[Joe_O]

 

[Jeff_R]

Very interesting! Thanks for posting. 75% of all POTF bubbles being yellow makes total sense...

Jeff

 

[Miss_the_80s]

This is a great thread!!

I would be interested in seeing the percentage of ROTJ 79 backs with yellow bubbles.
As someone who concentrates on 79 backs, I have noticed an unusually high concentration of yellow bubbles with these, especially within the last 5 years.
Very rare these days to find a 79 back that has not begun to yellow. This would also follow the trend of the latter releases seeing this yellowing effect.
Cheap plastic is the culprit in my opinion.

I just added the ROTJ 79 back to the spreadsheet. It actually shows up as a lower percentage than the 65 or 77 back.