Source for historical prices?

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Hi all,
Just some background. I'm currently a junior at Boston College studying finance. This semester, I'm taking a very interesting investments course. A key part of the course is the study of various pricing models that deal with managing risk and return. One such model, probably the most fundamental and basic to understand, is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In short, the CAPM tells investors what return they can expect given the systematic risk (beta) of any risky asset. Of course, the first thought I had was: can I apply the CAPM to vintage Star Wars collecting?

So, just for fun (and as a hands-on study tool), I am embarking on a project. I would like to see if I can apply the same pricing models and investment tools used to analyze securities, like stocks and bonds, to our favorite pastime. Lately, I've seen a lot of overlap between security markets and the vintage SW market. For example, at the moment, we're seeing a "bubble" bursting in the vintage SW market; this same phenomenon occurs in securities markets all the time. In general, seems as though vintage SW collectibles move in a manner very similar to traditional risky investment vehicles.

Through my research, I'd like to answer questions like: is the vintage SW market efficient? Can we predict returns in the market? How do different kinds of risk exposure affect expected returns on figures? Can we use these risk models to more accurately price our collectibles?

I have no idea if any of this will work, but I think it'll be really interesting to see what comes of it. Before I can do any of this, however, I need data, and lots of it. Is anybody aware of a comprehensive database of historical prices on vintage SW collectibles? If any of my fellow scummers could point me in the right direction, I'd really appreciate it!

Thanks!!
 
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Long term investment of vintage star wars is a terrible idea. One day the prices will crash. Maybe not tomorrow, or next year, but eventually either the figures will degrade so much that no one will want them or our generation will die off and future generations won't want toys from the 70s they didn't grow up with. Toys are just like Dutch Tulips of the 1600s just stretched out for a couple decades.

Shorter term? maybe. Jared Cope who made star wars tracker might have historical data going back a few years for his app but I'm not aware of bulk prices with enough frequency to chart by week going back farther than that. Of course collectors keep track of what they sold and bought and for how much and there are old advertisements and price guides for vintage star wars going back to the 80s and 90s so that might be a good place to look. Toyshop magazine and wizard's ToyFare magazine are worth tracking down issues of for old prices that way.
 
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Long term investment of vintage star wars is a terrible idea. One day the prices will crash. Maybe not tomorrow, or next year, but eventually either the figures will degrade so much that no one will want them or our generation will die off and future generations won't want toys from the 70s they didn't grow up with. Toys are just like Dutch Tulips of the 1600s just stretched out for a couple decades.

Shorter term? maybe. Jared Cope who made star wars tracker might have historical data going back a few years for his app but I'm not aware of bulk prices with enough frequency to chart by week going back farther than that. Of course collectors keep track of what they sold and bought and for how much and there are old advertisements and price guides for vintage star wars going back to the 80s and 90s so that might be a good place to look. Toyshop magazine and wizard's ToyFare magazine are worth tracking down issues of for old prices that way.
I wholeheartedly agree that vintage SW toys do not make a good long-term investment. They probably don’t even make a smart short-term investment. Like you said, it’s likely no different than Tulipmania or the South Seas bubble. I’m mostly doing this out of genuine interest as a collector and student.

I’m aware of the tracker app and think it’ll probably be a good place to start. Thanks for the suggestion to take a look at old magazine guides; I hadn’t thought of that. I’ll be sure to try tracking down some issues.
 
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On the ebay webpage under advanced search look at sold listings at auction. This is a great market tool but just goes back a year. There was /is a definite hyper saturation past 1.5 yrs of the market that I do believe is going to shake out pretty soon- I have a bunch of items I was hoping to sell this fall but I have not listed a thing. Ipso facto- If I am doing this, other collectors likely seeing the trends are doing same. Supply will lower to meet demand a bit and prices IMO will go up a bit. But won’t skyrocket at all (again IMO)
 
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I guess it also depends on the item itself. I just watched a parted out early bird set. The pegs went for 125. The tray for 238, the box for 535. And the insert went for over 700. Crazy for a piece of paper, but these were auctions. Vinyl capes and Dts. Early birds and other limited pieces items will probably hold value or continue to rise. The rest will most likely be effected somehow, but time will tell. Vehicles do not hold value. I'm guessing they take up too much room and are usually missing pieces or decals. I only know this because I follow vehicles and playsets very close. Not too long ago, shuttles went close to or past 400 completed and working. Now you can get one around 200. Skiffs and A wings are still very expensive as well as the radio sandcrawler. Figs go up and down but stay pretty close to the average sales from the last few years.
 
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