Clone Wars Box Office expectations

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Hi all,

as August 15th approaches, I thought it might be nice to do some guesswork on your expections an how well (or not well) Clone Wars will do at the box office.

To focus a bit:
What are your expections on the US BO results (international will probably be the same amount again)?

How will CW end up compared to the other animation movies of 2008 (Horton, wall-e, Panda, Madagascar 2)?

To start with, here are my expections:
I think CW will end up somewhere between 200 and 250 millions, as it is a SW movie after all, but somehow no "real" one.

In my opinion wall-e will probably be the hottest competition with respect to animated movies. Frome the trailer of wall-e, it seems to be another very nice Pixar movie, that will find its audience.
CW should definitelly beat Horton and from what I have seen in the trailer, Panda just sucks IMHO.

So, what are your expections?

Kind regards and MTFBWY,

dodkalm
 
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Welcome to the FC forum, dodkalm! Always nice to see new faces 'round these parts.


I'm not sure how well TCW will do at the box office, but it is SW and we know that name alone will earn it a pretty penny at the theaters.

Heaven knows it will make $$$ from my wife and I as we go see it multiple times for sure.


- Justin
 
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Being a Star Wars movie, it will obviously be seen in droves by nearly all fans of a particularly long-lasting movie franchise. I'll give you three guesses as to which. As for the non-fans, they will either hear how good it is from friends or reviews, or they will see a trailer and decide to give it a shot. I bet this Star Wars film will be hard to approach without some kind of idea about what you're getting into. The six core films were different: the first one was made to be self-contained, and when it took off, the other films followed it with the assumption that everyone had seen the first. However, enjoyment of this movie will depend somewhat on one's knowledge of the EU. If you don't know much about the Outer Rim Sieges, the Hutt clan, or Asajj Ventress, then this film might not be right for you. It's based on the entire SW franchise up until now, which means you can't jump right in -- at least not easily -- without a starting point.

EDIT: Welcome dodkalm!
 
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Hey dodkalm, welcome aboard!


You're very right ... wall-e is spectacular, I have to say I might be a little more impatient to see it than TCW.

I think wall-e, as a standalone movie, will be like other Pixar movies: a nice and simple story, coated in the best they can do in the genre, without any boundaries or limitations.
TCW is another thing: they have to stick to a complex storyline, but also to a rich and very well established visual universe.

So I'm getting ready to be more surprised by wall-e innovations, and more inspired by TCW.

As for your question ... TCW will not only benefit from the fan base, but also from the TV show, that will attract more people.
What are the schedules for TCW: movie and TV show?
If the TV show starts as the movie is still in theaters, TCW might do pretty well.
 
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I'm anxious to see how many Star Wars references there will be in Wall-e.
 
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Welcome Dodkalm.

The box office of TCW is hard to tell. First off, it's a Star Wars movie which means you have a guaranteed base of people who are going to go see it multiple times. However, as we have seen with other movies in the past, you need more than fanboys to sustain a movie financially.

I'm really not sure how much of the general public really understand what this movie is. I'm sure people will be confused as to when does it take place versus ROTS. Considering some people are still confused by the prequels vs. the OT. Also, I'm not sure how many people out there really even know that this movie exists.

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

I wonder how much Lucasfilm has invested in this movie. It really does seem like they were making the TV show and just thought about making one long episode and releasing it theatrically. So, they may be making more money from the TV show and less from the theatrical revenues.
 
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Welcome Dodkalm!

From what my ears are hearing I would say 116 mil. domestic 100 mil. foreign = 216. And the headlines will unfairly read "Lucas Produces First Star Wars Flop"

My reasoning is that for past films I have been accompanied by two other SW fans. This will be the first one I see alone. From what I can tell from what buzz is out there, and conversations I have had with other people, that SW may be losing two-thirds of its audience for this one. I think the last one grossed about 350 mil domestic, so one-third of that is 116.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we're going to feel a little lonely out there in the theaters
 
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I think Wall-E and Panda are going to be neck and neck throughout the summer. Panda opened with a $60M weekend, great for any movie, animated or not.
I think TCW will perform similarly. I don't think you'll have to worry about people being lost if they jump in with this film. They have to make it accessible at least to people who've only seen the PT. Add in the fact that the kids will have been exposed to TCW hype for a couple weeks before hand and it should do pretty well when it opens.
 
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Thanx for the warm welcome!
It's sure nice to get in contact with you, after hearing your names on the FC for so long. I just wished it wouldn't be 2 AM here when J&P record their show.


As fo the topic, I'm not sure if you have to know the EU to understand (and to like) this movie, although it surely helps. If you didn't see the 2D Clone Wars and didn't know about Grevious, you could still follow Ep. III and I guess you will get to know that Jabba is no good guy very soon, even if you didn't see ROTJ. But knowing all this will definitelly help.

And mario, 116 mio.! I really hope you are wrong with this one! I don't want SW to be beaten after 7 films by an english wizard youngling (no offence to all english, wizard, younglings and HP fans here, but Star Wars is Star Wars!).

Anyway, MTFBWY and hope to see you soon,

dodkalm
 
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Regarding the EU. Other then Assajj there really is no EU. If you seen the movies you would know all of the major jedis and other ones like Quilan Vos I would think that they would introduce a little more.
 
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dodkalm said:
And mario, 116 mio.! I really hope you are wrong with this one!
I really hope I'm wrong too. But I don't like what I'm hearing out there. There are people already talking negative about the movie and they haven’t even seen it yet.
 
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lost_mario_bro said:
There are people already talking negative about the movie and they haven’t even seen it yet.
Really? I haven't heard/read anything negative about TCW. Were they film critics or just casual fans?

- Justin
 
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Jedi_Justin said:
lost_mario_bro said:
There are people already talking negative about the movie and they haven’t even seen it yet.
Really? I haven't heard/read anything negative about TCW. Were they film critics or just casual fans?

- Justin
Check out the response to the leaked footage in the other thread. I was shocked by how negative people were.
 
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Murray1134 said:
Jedi_Justin said:
lost_mario_bro said:
There are people already talking negative about the movie and they haven’t even seen it yet.
Really? I haven't heard/read anything negative about TCW. Were they film critics or just casual fans?

- Justin
Check out the response to the leaked footage in the other thread. I was shocked by how negative people were.
Oh OK, those reponses. Yes, I had seen those. I thought LMB was referring to people outside this thread.

- Justin
 
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I really honestly, don't see this movie doing all that well... at least compared to the other Star Wars films. One, not all that many people seem to know about it, other than the Star Wars fans themselves. Everyone that I've told about it so far has been surprised. Also everyone I talk to is saying things like "It's just a cartoon though". For me, I was a huge fan of the Tartakovsky (I don't think I spelled that right) cartoons, it's still Star Wars, and it's still a theatrical release. Which means I will see it opening night. But others probably aren't going to see it that way. I think that there will probably be a lot of people taking their kids to it and things like that and I think that as far as general films go it will do well, but I don't see it doing anywhere near as well as the other films did. Who knows, maybe it will get more exposure as the summer goes on, but so far I've seen the trailer once on TV, and never in a movie so far. You'd think they would have put it with Indy 4...

Oh, and as far as EU goes, I'm betting there will be some references in there that people who know the EU will catch, but overall, I think they will probably avoid the EU directly, except for say Asajj and maybe one of two other characters. And remember that Asajj was kinda sorta introduced in the Tartakovsky cartoons, so anyone who has seen those will know, at least to some extent, who she is.

And a welcome to the forums to dodkalm!!!
 
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I'm referring to both. There may not be a lot of SW fans here where I live, but I am not the only one.

One example of what I am dealing with down here. Talking with a fellow fan about CW (who by the way I would not call him a casual fan as he has read some of the books and we have analyzed the movies much the same way we do here). I showed him the trailer they showed at CIV when it hit the web. Since then we have had a running argument on whether it is a "real" Star Wars movie. The first time he saw it he said, "That is not a real Star Wars movie, it’s a cartoon!" A few conversations later, "I do not watch cartoons on TV, and I certainly do not pay money to go see one at the theater." To which I countered, "But you go see Shrek." His answer, "But I like Shrek." So we have left it somewhere between CW is not a real movie but Shrek is.


And I have heard other people say it looks like cheap animation from a bad cheap video game. Others have said that GL and company should have made it look like the realistic animation from the Final Fantasy movie a few years back.

I just have a very bad feeling that when I go to the first showing of CW that I am sitting in the theater alone.
 
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lost_mario_bro said:
And I have heard other people say it looks like cheap animation from a bad cheap video game. Others have said that GL and company should have made it look like the realistic animation from the Final Fantasy movie a few years back.
Did anyone see that Final Fantasy movie? The animation was great.... until the characters spoke, moved, or did anything remotely human.

I think the animation in TCW looks great, but I also liked Tartakosvky's style too.
 
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lost_mario_bro said:
I just have a very bad feeling that when I go to the first showing of CW that I am sitting in the theater alone.
Not to worry - my Jedi spirit will be seated right beside you.


- Justin
 
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Jedi_Justin said:
lost_mario_bro said:
I just have a very bad feeling that when I go to the first showing of CW that I am sitting in the theater alone.
Not to worry - my Jedi spirit will be seated right beside you.


- Justin
I appreciate that. This also reminds me of a time that I went to a movie with my uncle. He wanted to see The Island. We were the only two people in the Theater. Five minutes in I found out why.
Anyway between the two of us, it sounded like a rerun of MST3K.
 
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I'll be there opening night too!!!!


But yeah, I think they are going for a distinct style with animation and I think that they are kinda paying homage to the Tartakovsky designs at the same time as designing their own. I think they are trying to link it to the Tartakovsky shorts but keep it seperate at the same time. To me it feels like something between realistic CGI and the Tartakovsky style.

And I think I probably could've said that in like one line.... oh well.
 
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If the Star Wars books can still hit the New York Times Bestsellers list, I fully expect this movie to do well. Maybe not as good as Revenge of the Sith, but maybe even better. A lot more children will be seeing this than were present for Episode III, so you just never know...

Its a hard one to call, but I know it will do very well.
 
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It will be an interesting premiere, for sure. To non-SW-fans, it will be relatively unheard of. The only marketing being done so far has been towards fans who have been anticipating it for a while. Okay, yeah, there've been some trailers. But nowhere near the hype that dedicated fans have been privy to. So when it smashes the box office records, non-fans will see it as a cinema dark horse. Meanwhile, we'll be sitting back and laughing at mainstream media and nonbelievers alike.
 
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I don't know...
The ratings screen at the start of the trailer says PG-13 for brief language and smoking, not to mention all that violence!
It might turn parents away
 
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PG-13? No, it got (and the trailers say) a PG. Which is under what Episode III was...
 
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I'm really not too concerned with what TCW brings in at the box office.

I'm just looking forward to an excellent movie experience, and then a tremendous BR release later on.


- Justin
 
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Jedi_Justin said:
I'm really not too concerned with what TCW brings in at the box office.

I'm just looking forward to an excellent movie experience, and then a tremendous BR release later on.


- Justin

Exactly!!!

And I guess I could see a lot of kids wanting to see it. I'm not entirely sure of the kind of exposure the trailer is getting on say Cartoon Network. The trailer could be getting a lot of time on the air on the station, I don't know. I don't normally watch it all that much. And who knows, maybe it will get more exposure as the summer goes on, but so far I haven't seen any trailers or anything for it in theaters.
 
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I think if they make about 100 million, they are lucky. Many of the SW crowd I hang out with couldn't care less about the animation, and the ones who are going to see it, are not going to stand in line at midnight. It's just not a "real" SW movie ... I guess this movie will show us how popular the Star Wars brand really is among the kids.
 
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In a recent interview with the NY Times, Lucas was quoted as saying he only expects the movie to do about $100 million or so.
 
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Alrighty, I haven't thrown in my 2cents yet, but now they're burning a hole in my pocket.

This is weird to me. We are about a month and two weeks away from the opening and we are not seeing any mainstream media promotion yet. Any article or preview is in a game, scifi or media magazine and the only televised preview so far, which was a big deal to us (being that it was ground breaking in simulcast on multiple networks) flew over the head of the commmon folk, who never heard about it. Not to mention the secrecy of the cast, which is weird; they release a poster with no names attached? Unless the secrecy is what they hope to use as ammo in loo of big names and Luke Skywalker.
I mentioned it to some friends who go to the movies all the time and they talk about upcoming things I haven't heard of and they have no idea about the Clone Wars.

Plus, it's weird! Is it a Star Wars movie for kids? Is it a spin-off? Where's Darth Vader?

I don't know where to put this (just like the tv execs). On the one hand it has STAR WARS in it's title, on the other hand, it looks like a cartoon. Pixar movies usually beat out the competition, so being that it's animated might actually help it out, but then again, what da hell are the clone wars? Didn't the clones already attack?
This is just how I'm trying to look at it from a common-man standpoint.

So, I think it'll be number 1, which won't be hard in mid-August (summer movie season is over by mid-July) but it won't come close to any prequel movie in numbers, partly to blame might be the economy, but I also expect it to trickle out quickly and then be removed from theaters to make a set date for the DVD and the premier of the show, which will probably be the same week.

But most of all...I don't care. I'm going to sqeeze every drop of hype and excitement I can get out of this thing. I'm going to go spastic and not care about it's boxoffice duties. I've already got a date to take and then I'll go back the next day with buddies and I might go by myself too.
 
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Cramer said:
But most of all...I don't care. I'm going to sqeeze every drop of hype and excitement I can get out of this thing. I'm going to go spastic and not care about it's boxoffice duties.
My exact mindset in every sense of the word.
 
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