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Thread: Han Solo Box Office Predictions

  1. #1

    Han Solo Box Office Predictions

    Ok so its about that time to put in your predictions for the Box Office for Han Solo.

    This is about Han Solo only and not any of the previous movies so stay on topic

    Keep your bias out off the discussion.

    Currently Han Solo is tracking for a $170 million dollar opening weekend making it one of the largest Memorail Weekend openings of all time. Trackings are usually pretty accurate.

    Personally I think that might be a bit high I place it around $150 million for the opening.

    As for the rest of it's run i'm putting it at

    High 1.1 Billion
    Low 850 million

    These are world wide totals obviously.

    What are your thoughts? Please post your high and low predictions
    Last edited by Vicarious_Fan; 05-03-2018 at 11:02 PM.

  2. #2
    At least $1.2 billion..

  3. #3
    I honestly think that putting this movie in to the hands of Ron Howard was a genius move. Ron has a long track history of making very enjoyable movies. So reguardless of the SW aspect, this movie would be a fun adventure. While I have not enjoyed the Sequel Trilogy movies, I really did enjoy Rogue One. So for me, the spin-off movies are where my hopes lie for future Star Wars fun.

    I think that we have been enjoying a Marvel boost in the theaters lately with Panther and Avengers, so that might carry over to Solo. I think that this movie will have Rogue One levels of success. It won't have Triology levels of hype, but it will still do well.

    I hate to say it, but I'm afraid that the trailer have given away too much. A gathering of rag-tag misfits to perform a space-train heist. Yeah, I saw that in Clone Wars and in Firefly (which only had 11 episodes). So let me guess, they are hired to heist the train, only to find out what they are stealing from "The Man", isn't wealth, but is actually something more morally impacting.

    I also expect to see: Han save Chewie's life and earn that 'life debt', Han win the MF from Lando in a card game (shown in trailer), Han make the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs, Han have some kind of interaction with Jabba and Bobba Fett.

  4. #4
    Enfys Nest (empty nest?) is Han Solo’s mom. That’s my prediction.

    As for Han saving Chewy’s life, I believe that’s in one of the teaser tv spots when Han is reaching for Chewbacca yelling “chewy!!” As it looks as if Chewbacca is going to fall to his death etc.

  5. #5
    hmmmm something I doubted may be happening in this film after all-recent clips, etc. I'm now seeing are leaning again into the "see how he got his name" phrase, & it may indeed be true Solo will be a nickname type of moniker, rather than his actual name. Not a major issue, but I really didn't expect to have to take that ^ phrase literally... surprising if so

  6. #6
    The box office is tough to predict because no one has seen the movie yet. Once people get an idea of whether viewers generally like it or generally dislike it, it will be easier to tell how well it will do (For example, TLJ had much higher predictions before it released, but then it wasn't well received by all fans so it ended up falling short).

    The best way to predict the film's upcoming performance is to look at recent comparisons. Here are the stats for the recent waves for comparison:

    Force Awakens: $2.068 billion worldwide
    Rogue One: $1.056 billion worldwide
    Last Jedi: $1.332 billion worldwide

    Solo will probably perform more like Rogue One than the sequential episodes, probably a little better domestically if it's well received by fans. i don't think franchise fatigue will play too much of a factor based on the incredible performance of Black Panther and Infinity War with just over 2 months between them. The other interesting tidbit for consideration is the fact that there were some early difficulties with marketing in international territories (changing the name so as not to confuse audiences, taking "Star Wars" out of the title for China due to their poor reaction to TLJ). I wonder how those issues will ultimately affect the film's international performance.

    Considering all of these factors, I'd say Vicarious_Fan posted a pretty reasonable and conservative low end and high end for this one, assuming the movie isn't a total disaster. I also think the domestic/international ratio will look different on this one from the recent comparisons for the reasons I outlined above.

  7. #7
    I'm not sure it will match the Rogue One gross. It is looking like fun film, so it might actually have some legs. How much will it make?.....Enough.

  8. #8
    People want to love Star Wars. Even after the debacle of TLJ.

    While some people blame Disney for the new direction of Star Wars, others have placed the blame solely on Rian Johnson.
    TFA was well received, because it was a carbon copy of the OT. Then Rian Johnson **** the bed.

    There may be talk of boycotting Disney Star Wars, but let's face it, we aren't going to see any impact of that.
    I think people are hoping and praying Solo is good, just because Rian Johnson has absolutely no involvement.

    Solo will do very well. Unfortunately, TLJ defenders will take this as a "see I told you so" kind of moment.
    But the fact is, Solo will do well simply because people want to love Star Wars and Rian Johnson is not involved.

    Positive early fan reviews, it will do just slightly better than Rogue One.
    Negative early fan reviews, just under Rogue One.

  9. #9
    I was definitely in the "why the **** is this movie even necessary camp" but I'm not gonna lie I'm super psyched. Maybe it's the trailers. Maybe it's the May release which is when all Star Wars movies should come out. Maybe the semi decent toy roll out. Maybe a combination of it all. All I know is that I can't wait to see this.

    Also after the awful, miserable, terrible dumpster fire known as The Last Jedi I NEED this movie to be good. That disaster seriously depressed me (I know, I know very dramatic) and had me contemplating throwing in the towel on collecting. But a whole bunch of OT and PT therapy over the past few months eased the pain. So Ron Howard my trust is in you. Hopefully this movie is akin to Rogue One where it just feels like an OT addendum with Lucas' thumbprint on it.

    I think this movie will over perform...but honestly box office means nothing to me. If I enjoy it I don't care if it only makes $60 (which would be me seeing it about 5 times).

  10. #10
    Emperor Ian_C's Avatar
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    Dec 2001
    Caledonia, Ontario, Canada

    There are all kinds of factors into how this one will play out.

    It's Star Wars, so here is a built in fan base.

    The dissatisfaction of many fans over TLJ will hurt its box office - but that may be countered by those of us that view the spinoffs as far superior to the sequels. I won't be alone in being interested in this while blatantly refusing to acknowledge TLJ and, next year, Episode IX. So, this may be a wash and not change much at all.

    There was plenty of early pessimism over the necessity of having a Solo movie, the actor's likeness/acting, and being a mess behind the scenes with the original directors being tossed out. I think there will be a certain number of fans though that acknowledge that Ron Howard is a director more from the OT era, and judging by past sci-fi hits like Cocoon, Willow, and Apollo 13, we can expect a feel more in line with the original films than the Marvel-esque wannabe comedies we see in the ST.

    Globally, you can't count on China for any gross at all. They're not stupid, and will see through the name change. They ignored TLJ after a mediocre TFA gross and big drop off for Rogue One, so I expect China to add virtually nothing to the international box office.

    Having said all that, I definitely expect it to perform more like Rogue One than either TFA or TLJ. Rogue One barely cracked $1 billion globally, and $532 domestic.

    There is one major factor in a prediction though - release date. Never mind the fact that so far Disney SW films have been released over Christmas, with little competition and a full two weeks of holiday time to capitalize on matinee performances and late shows. That's going to go against Solo right off the bat, since it won't share that timing advantage. Anyway, Solo comes out in two weeks. Over the last six months, fans have spent a LOT of money on TLJ, then Black Panther, then Avengers (and that's not counting the surprise hit in Jumanji which had a massive haul as well). Solo is out only 4 weeks after Avengers, and a whole one week after Deadpool 2. It gets 2 weeks of fighting Deadpool for an audience, then Incredibles 2 hits screens. The week after that, it's Jurassic World 2. This is all before kids are even out of school and most adults are taking summer vacation. Looking even further ahead, the following month will have The Purge 3, Ant Man 2, Hotel Transylvania 3, and another Mission: Impossible. Not all of those will be monster hits, but they will be eating up Solo's audience.

    If we're going to say it'll perform more like Rogue One, let's consider the competition that film had after all. It faced Sing in week 2, then didn't have any major hit after that until the surprise performance of Split in its 6th week. Certainly nowhere near the competition Solo faces. Even if you want to be optimistic and think it will play closer to TLJ, how about competition there? It had Jumanji in week 2, then there were no other films to open with over $20 million until Maze Runner with $24 million, when TLJ was in its 6th week and already out of the top 10. Again, the competition isn't even close.

    Solo is the 4th Star Wars film in less than 30 months. Franchise fatigue, and a somewhat jaded portion of the target audience that hated TLJ will cut down on people going to see it, and certainly repeat sales. The Marvel Machine, as well as Incredibles and Jurassic World, are going to decimate its repeat audience for sure. It's going to have a massive chunk of its audience taken away before summer vacations even begin.

    Based on that, I have lowered expectations for its box office, even though it'll still be a big hit.

    $420 million domestic, and between $800 to $850 million global.


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