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Thread: Han Solo Box Office Predictions

  1. #11
    It will have much better competition being released in May versus late December. I am guessing 700-800 million?
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  2. #12
    better than rogue one but less than TFA.
    "Is there anyone on this ship, who even remotely, looks like Satan?" -- James Kirk, U.S.S. Enterprise.

  3. #13
    Looks like it's starting off below studio expectations:

    http://variety.com/2018/film/news/bo...nd-1202822710/

    Says there that Disney estimated $130 to $150 million for the weekend, but it's headed for closer to $110.

    It should be noted that Disney has recently underestimated Black Panther and Infinity War's opening weekends by a longshot, so I wonder if their original estimate came with an outside hope of going even higher.

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ozzfan84 View Post
    Looks like it's starting off below studio expectations:

    http://variety.com/2018/film/news/bo...nd-1202822710/

    Says there that Disney estimated $130 to $150 million for the weekend, but it's headed for closer to $110.

    It should be noted that Disney has recently underestimated Black Panther and Infinity War's opening weekends by a longshot, so I wonder if their original estimate came with an outside hope of going even higher.
    yeah saw that, and apparently it had a good Thursday preview making 14 million. What I find really interesting though is the amount of good word of mouth it is getting.

    I think even if it has a low opening weekend it might have legs in the long run.

  5. #15
    I think some people are trying to punish Disney for TLJ.. since TLJ left a bad taste in their mouths, they won't see Solo.
    as time goes on, the BO for each new SW film will not be a reflection of THAT particular film... it reflects Disney losing their audience over time.
    and/or: I don't blame Solo for its poor BO performance; I blame the entire franchise. (I blame the "powers that be" for mismanaging their own audience).

    the customer is always right, afterall.
    if you serve your customer something they did NOT order, and then fail to check on them to see if they're enjoying it,
    then don't be surprised when you lose a customer.

    it's sad in a way, because Disney STARTED this venture with 100% customer support and goodwill ..
    ((they didn't have to work hard to 'earn' this audience, it was handed to them on a silver platter -- SW fans are the most devoted fanbase in the world))
    ... and they are losing it. they are squandering it, with movies like TLJ

    it's a shame, to see so much hatred coming from ex-fans who had once devoted their entire lives to this franchise.
    do we blame these fans? or do we blame poor customer service and a corporate mentality that does not VALUE these fans' opinions?



    either way. SW films succeed on repeat viewings of fanatics who are willing to see the same movie 12 times over and over in the theater (and brag about it later).
    --> when these same fans are only seeing the movie ONE time .. then this effects the bottom line. --> maybe they should pay more attention to customer service.
    Last edited by Cobalt60; 05-26-2018 at 12:26 PM.
    "Is there anyone on this ship, who even remotely, looks like Satan?" -- James Kirk, U.S.S. Enterprise.

  6. #16
    Friday estimates have been posted at $36 mil. including Thursday previews. It’s not looking good. I think there’s low interest for the general filmgoing public.
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  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cobalt60 View Post

    it's sad in a way, because Disney STARTED this venture with 100% customer support and goodwill ..
    Not 100%. I was completely against Disney's acquisition from the start, because I fully anticipated back then what they have done with the franchise. When everyone else cheered Disney buying Lucasfilm, I ranted about how it was going to be very, very bad in the long run - and was ridiculed for it. When TFA came out, I was among a VERY small group that condemned it for being a soulless rehash of the OT, ANH in particular. I was ostracized from the community for that, but 2 1/2 years later, and there are a lot more admitting that was exactly the correct evaluation of it. I was against TLJ before I saw the first preview, because of how much I hated TFA. Then, when I first saw spoilers, and then finally saw it, I was flabbergasted they even allowed that crap to be released. I was NOT alone this time.

    I had started out with zero interest in Rogue One, but my kids convinced me to take them, and after sitting with a negative attitude from the start, by 20 minutes in, I was coming around to it. Disney had to win me over with that movie, and it's left me open to at least the spinoffs. I have seen spoilers for Solo, and it deflated my expectations a bit, but I will still go and see it eventually. The days of Star Wars being opening weekend material are long gone, and I think that has spread to many other people as well.


    Quote Originally Posted by Vicarious_Fan View Post
    apparently it had a good Thursday preview making 14 million. What I find really interesting though is the amount of good word of mouth it is getting.
    I was surprised at that $14 million claim. All over Facebook, I saw fellow fans posting pictures of nearly empty theaters for the premiere showings, and comments of anywhere from 6 to 25 people total.

    It has been getting good word of mouth, with LOTS of people saying it's wiped the bad taste of TLJ from their mouths.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vicarious_Fan View Post
    I think even if it has a low opening weekend it might have legs in the long run.
    Not a chance. It still has competition from Avengers and Deadpool, even though Avengers is starting to wind down its run and Deadpool dropped a massive 65% this past Friday. Next week Solo has a shot at not losing much of its audience, but in two weeks, Incredibles 2 will suck most of the family audiences away, then the week after that Jurassic World will decimate what's left of Solo's audience. It might last a while on screens, but it has exactly two weekends to make the majority of its box office before competition kills it.

    Ian
    BACK FROM THE DEAD

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Cobalt60 View Post
    I think some people are trying to punish Disney for TLJ.. since TLJ left a bad taste in their mouths, they won't see Solo.
    I too feel that this is the opinion of the wider public here in the UK.

    I've been twice and it's been totally dead. Once at the midnight opening, and today on a holiday weekend while the schools are off.

    I really do think TLJ has done damage to the franchise's bankability, at least in this period where it is still in the recent memory. I don't know any "real-life" people that liked it (members here don't count).
    May you live in interesting times.

  9. #19
    It's a shame if TLJ ends up causing collateral damage to Solo's box office. Instead of doubling down and pulling an "emperor's new clothes" routine when many fans didn't like it, the folks at Disney would have been wise to differentiate and separate the movies as much as possible while promoting Solo. I do think word of mouth can help it overall, though. A lot of my friends wouldn't see this one in theaters after TLJ, and I called a couple of them up and told them the coast is clear and they should go see it. I'm sure my situation is not unique.

  10. #20
    I don't think TLJ is completely to blame for this. Sure I would say about 50 or 60 percent of the people not seeing it are boycotting after TLJ, but I think the premise is the rest of that chunk. I have plenty or friends who liked TLJ and I can't say a single one of them was truly excited for this movie for any reason other than “hey it's the new Star Wars movie.”

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