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Thread: Box Office Predictions

  1. #271
    Quote Originally Posted by DarthPete View Post
    A friend of mine actually very excitedly texted me while he was watching the movie to say the guy in it (that plays young Harrison Ford) looked just like me. Spoiler alert, he doesn't, I suppose there's some vague similarities in facial structure, smile, hair, but I didn't see it. That said, it is officially the best compliment I've ever been paid in my life. lol.

    LOL You should have auditioned for the Solo role!
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  2. #272
    Quote Originally Posted by Ian_C View Post
    To put that into more perspective, it lost over 52% of its audience this weekend compared to last weekend. Comparatively, TFA and Rogue One lost 38% and 39% respectively in their 5th weekends.

    I guess we can't do this without a Jumanji reference too. Jumanji, in its 4th weekend, is #1 with about $27 million. Last weekend, TLJ in its 4th weekend was #3, with just under $24 million. Jumanji actually has a better hold and is earning more in the same timeframe.

    Hell, a SW movie in its 5th weekend, making LESS than The Greatest Showman, which is in its 4th weekend?

    Horrible drop off for this movie. It might be the most front loaded movie of all time.

    Ian
    Interesting observations. The China debacle is unprecedented and record-setting as well. It's getting harder and harder to spin this into some kind of grand success story and claim Disney won't see any warning signs in this kind of performance. The puff pieces for this weekend will probably be about how it beat Beauty and the Beast for highest grossing movie worldwide in 2017; but frankly it should have passed that a while back.

    Jumanji's performance is incredible and Sony really needed a hit after a string of bombs this year. I don't think its success would have been possible had TLJ done well with repeat business.

  3. #273
    Emperor Ian_C's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial1973 View Post
    I still say it hits 1.3 billion by the close of Sunday..



    $1.265 is the actual at the close of Sunday.

    It made $11.3 million domestic, and $19 million international, for a global take of $30 million this weekend.

    It still needs another $35 million to crack $1.3 billion.

    There is a good chance it won't crack $1.3 billion by NEXT weekend, never mind this weekend.

    I know, I know, it doesn't matter what it makes, Disney will be happy, #1 of the year domestic and global, and on and on and on...

    Ian
    BACK FROM THE DEAD

  4. #274
    Quote Originally Posted by Ian_C View Post

    It still needs another $35 million to crack $1.3 billion.

    There is a good chance it won't crack $1.3 billion by NEXT weekend, never mind this weekend.
    Rogue One made $13.816 million between days 32 and 38. This weekend, TLJ made 81.8% of what Rogue One made on the same weekend. If that percentage doesn't slip any further (but I think it might), TLJ is looking at $11.2 million from day 32 to 38. With those numbers, you're probably right that it won't hit $1.3 billion by next Sunday if it still needs $35 million.

    Rogue One made $36.615 million between day 31 and the end of its run. Using the same 81.8% dropoff from Rogue One, TLJ would be looking at another $29.951 domestic between now and the end of its run, putting it at $621.5 million. I don't think it can maintain that dropoff from Rogue One though.

  5. #275
    Emperor Ian_C's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzfan84 View Post
    Rogue One made $13.816 million between days 32 and 38. This weekend, TLJ made 81.8% of what Rogue One made on the same weekend. If that percentage doesn't slip any further (but I think it might), TLJ is looking at $11.2 million from day 32 to 38. With those numbers, you're probably right that it won't hit $1.3 billion by next Sunday if it still needs $35 million.

    Rogue One made $36.615 million between day 31 and the end of its run. Using the same 81.8% dropoff from Rogue One, TLJ would be looking at another $29.951 domestic between now and the end of its run, putting it at $621.5 million. I don't think it can maintain that dropoff from Rogue One though.
    I was thinking of the same thing last night.

    Your numbers are slightly off. Using boxofficemojo, after Day 31, Rogue One only made $33.617 million to the end of its run. Not a big deal, but if you apply that 81.8% to that, it only gives TLJ $27.5 million, which would bring it to just over $619 million. However, it's been consistently dropping at a faster rate than either TFA or Rogue One, so it'll more than likely be closer to $25 million more, so it'll finish between $616-$618 million. If that's true, it won't crack the top 5 unadjusted totals, falling just short of The Avengers. On the adjusted chart, it'll end up around current #39 Independence Day, which ended with $618.5 million.

    For the critics, by all other accounts, yes, this is a box office smash. It just hasn't lived up to the repeat audience that any other SW film has had, which is an indicator future installments may perform even worse. It certainly doesn't bode well for Solo, which is already fighting an uphill battle for an audience due to several factors.

    Ian
    BACK FROM THE DEAD

  6. #276
    people will come out in droves to see Solo. they just don't care about Finn and Rey. and why should they?
    "Is there anyone on this ship, who even remotely, looks like Satan?" -- James Kirk, U.S.S. Enterprise.

  7. #277
    Quote Originally Posted by Ian_C View Post


    $1.265 is the actual at the close of Sunday.

    It made $11.3 million domestic, and $19 million international, for a global take of $30 million this weekend.

    It still needs another $35 million to crack $1.3 billion.

    There is a good chance it won't crack $1.3 billion by NEXT weekend, never mind this weekend.

    I know, I know, it doesn't matter what it makes, Disney will be happy, #1 of the year domestic and global, and on and on and on...

    Ian

    Lol..
    I'll be happy
    Disney Stock = $$$
    Pre ordered the last Jedi 4k at best buy already..
    Last edited by Imperial1973; 01-15-2018 at 01:18 PM.

  8. #278
    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial1973 View Post
    Lol..
    I'll be happy
    Disney Stock = $$$
    Pre ordered the last Jedi 4k at best buy already..
    Talk about deflection...

  9. #279
    No deflection..
    Didn't make $1.5 billion..
    Lol.. Oh well..
    Not losing sleep on it..
    Made a $$..
    Still a good day / year for Disney and its shareholders...
    Last edited by Imperial1973; 01-15-2018 at 09:47 PM.

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